How Trump’s Victory Will Reshape AI Policy: What’s Next for Innovation and Regulation?

The 2024 election cycle has come to an end, and with Donald Trump set to take office as the 47th president of the United States, big changes are on the horizon — especially for the AI industry. Republicans now control the Senate (and possibly the House), which could shift the balance of power in Washington and impact the future of AI policy in significant ways.

Trump, who has voiced his plans to dismantle President Biden’s AI policy framework on his first day in office, is aligning with critics who argue for minimal regulations on the tech industry. As a result, the future of AI regulation in the U.S. could look very different under a Trump administration.

Biden’s AI Policy: A Brief Overview

Biden’s AI policy took shape through an executive order passed in October 2023. With Congress slow to act on AI regulation, the order’s provisions were voluntary rather than mandatory. It covered a range of AI-related topics, from its application in healthcare to addressing risks like intellectual property theft.

Two key provisions of the executive order have sparked controversy, particularly among Republicans. One provision requires companies developing powerful AI models to report to the government on how they’re training and securing these models, along with providing the results of tests aimed at identifying vulnerabilities. The other provision tasks the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) with developing guidelines to help companies detect and correct flaws, such as biases, in AI models.

The Biden administration also took steps to strengthen AI safety, establishing the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI) within the Commerce Department and partnering with AI research firms like OpenAI and Anthropic to test new AI models. However, some of Trump’s allies view these efforts as burdensome and fear they could stifle innovation. For example, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) argued that such reporting requirements could deter entrepreneurs from pursuing groundbreaking advancements in AI.

Critics also accuse the Biden administration of overreach, citing the use of the Defense Production Act from the 1950s as a way to enforce these AI regulations. Some Republicans argue that the executive order is an overstep of presidential powers, while others, like JD Vance, believe it could entrench the dominance of tech giants and hinder competition.

What Could a Trump Administration Mean for AI?

If Trump follows through on his campaign promises, Biden’s AI executive order could be repealed on day one of his presidency. However, little is known about how Trump would approach AI regulation, as his previous executive orders on AI focused primarily on research and development, rather than regulation. Trump’s earlier initiatives established national AI research institutes and promoted the use of “trustworthy” AI technologies, but these efforts were light on specific guidelines for regulating AI development or addressing concerns like safety and bias.

Trump has made it clear that he sees AI as a powerful but potentially dangerous technology. While he acknowledges the need to address AI’s risks, he has promised a policy approach that supports innovation and free speech. However, he has not provided much detail on how he plans to achieve this balance, leaving many questions unanswered about his AI regulatory agenda.

Potential Impact on State-Level AI Regulation

With the federal government potentially stepping back from AI regulation, state governments might take a more active role. Some states, particularly Democratic strongholds like California, have already started implementing their own AI laws. For instance, Tennessee passed a law protecting voice artists from AI cloning, while Colorado adopted a tiered, risk-based approach to AI deployment. California recently signed several AI-related safety bills into law, including ones requiring companies to disclose details about their AI training processes.

This state-level activism could continue to grow, potentially leading to a patchwork of AI regulations across the country. This could create challenges for companies that need to navigate different laws depending on where they operate, but it could also spur innovation in areas where federal rules are less stringent.

Trade and Global Implications

Trump’s policies on trade and international relations could have significant implications for the global AI landscape. He has signaled that he would impose tighter export controls on China, particularly concerning the technologies needed to develop AI. This would likely escalate tensions between the U.S. and China, potentially limiting the flow of AI-related technology across borders and affecting global AI development.

Some experts believe that these protectionist policies could stifle innovation by restricting access to vital technologies and resources. As Matt Mittelsteadt from George Mason University points out, tariffs on tech imports could have a massive economic impact on the AI sector, making it harder for companies to fund AI research and development.

The Path Forward

While Trump’s views on AI regulation remain unclear, it’s evident that AI governance will continue to be a hotly debated issue in the U.S. and beyond. Sarah Kreps, a political scientist at Cornell University, suggests that Trump is unlikely to introduce major AI regulations during his presidency, but that doesn’t mean the issue will disappear. Instead, state governments, research institutes, and private-sector players may take the lead in shaping the future of AI.

As we look to the future, experts like Sandra Wachter from the Oxford Internet Institute emphasize the need for policymakers to focus on the global risks of AI, rather than letting political divisions hinder progress. The potential harms and benefits of AI are not bound by borders or political ideologies — and global cooperation will be key in addressing these challenges.

In conclusion, while the landscape of AI regulation in the U.S. is about to undergo a significant shift, the full implications of a Trump presidency on AI policy remain uncertain. The coming years could see a mix of federal inaction, state-level innovation, and geopolitical maneuvering that will shape the AI industry for years to come.